Program Details

Wednesday (Sept. 20th)

Keynote Address

And the lesson is … Abstract Recording

8:30 AM – 9:30 AM

Speaker: Jim Smith (The Nature Conservancy)

Plenary Presentations – Session 1

The Australian Ecosystem Models Framework: towards a nationally consistent set of state and transition models for Australia Abstract Recording

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

Speaker: Anna Richards (CSIRO Australia)

Landscape scale state-and-transition simulation models for two case studies across Australia’s latitudinal extremes Abstract Recording

9:50 AM – 10:10 AM

Speaker: James Furlaud (CSIRO Australia)

Measuring spatially-explicit and stochastic ecological departure Abstract Recording

10:10 AM – 10:30 AM

Speaker: Louis Provencher (The Nature Conservancy)

Plenary Presentations – Session 2

Using a state-and-transition model to analyze the sustainability of timber harvest from alternative forest management scenarios on a national forest in the Western United States Abstract Slides

11:00 AM – 11:20 AM

Speaker: Ayn Shlisky Hunt (Agriculture Conservation Experienced Services Program)

Simulating climate change effects on vegetation in Arizona and New Mexico with ST-Sim – dynamic vegetation model integration Abstract Recording

11:20 AM – 11:40 AM

Speaker: Ellynne Kutschera (U.S. Forest Service)

Optimizing treatments in a state and transition model using a genetic algorithm Abstract Recording

11:40 AM – 12:00 PM

Speaker: David Anderson (U.S. Forest Service)

Plenary Presentations – Session 3

Updating LANDFIRE national vegetation and fuel geospatial data products using ST-Sim Abstract Recording

1:00 PM – 1:20 PM

Speaker: Jim Smith (The Nature Conservancy)

LANDFIRE Pre-post Disturbance Vegetation-Fuel Type (PDVT) layer development for projecting fuel and vegetation outcomes Abstract Recording

1:20 PM – 1:40 PM

Speaker: Darcy Hammond (University of Idaho)

Using BurnP3+ to forecast landscape level fire risk in Canada Abstract Recording

1:40 PM – 2:00 PM

Speaker: Chris Stockdale (Natural Resources Canada)

Dynamically linking models of fire behavior and vegetation change: lessons learned integrating FARSITE, Prometheus and Cell2Fire with ST-Sim Abstract Recording

2:00 PM – 2:20 PM

Speaker: Leonardo Frid (ApexRMS)

Plenary Presentations – Session 4

Exploring the use of individual tree data to support fire simulations in SyncroSim Abstract Recording

2:50 PM – 3:10 PM

Speaker: Kori Blankenship (The Nature Conservancy)

Using the LUCAS-BLUE model to estimate the carbon impacts of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana Abstract

3:10 PM – 3:30 PM

Speaker: Eric Ward (U.S. Geological Survey)

Incorporating wetland carbon dynamics into the Land Use and Carbon Simulator (LUCAS) to inform land management and climate mitigation policy across the U.S. Abstract Recording

3:30 PM – 3:50 PM

Speaker: Camille Stagg (U.S. Geological Survey)

Climate and land change impacts on future water availability for managed wetland habitat Abstract Recording

3:50 PM – 4:10 PM

Speaker: Tamara Wilson (U.S. Geological Survey)

A new water stock-flow model examining land-use and climate change impacts on groundwater balance along the Central Coast of California Abstract

4:10 PM – 4:30 PM

Speaker: Paul Selmants (U.S. Geological Survey)

Thursday (Sept. 21st)

Plenary Presentations – Session 1

Forecasting the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on breeding habitat for the Species at Risk, Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi) and implications for restoring ecological balance with Indigenous-led forest stewardship Abstract Recording

8:50 AM – 9:10 AM

Speaker: Andrea Norris (Environment Climate Change Canada)

Carbon flux state and transition modeling on Department of Defense Lands Abstract Recording

9:10 AM – 9:30 AM

Speaker: Ryan Busby (U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center)

U.S. Geological Survey interdisciplinary land-use modeling and SyncroSim Abstract Recording

9:30 AM – 9:50 AM

Speaker: Terry Sohl (U.S. Geological Survey)

Carbon sequestration in degraded Intermountain West rangelands USA Abstract Recording

9:50 AM – 10:10 AM

Speaker: Kevin Badik (The Nature Conservancy)

Exploring the potential and pitfalls: state and transition modeling for teaching fundamental ecological processes in undergraduate education Abstract Slides

10:10 AM – 10:30 AM

Speaker: Randy Swaty (The Nature Conservancy)

Plenary Presentations – Session 2

Assessing the effects of forest management on American marten: linking the ST-Sim model of vegetation change with the Omniscape model of habitat connectivity Abstract Recording

11:00 AM – 11:20 AM

Speaker: Bronwyn Rayfield (ApexRMS)

Modeling coral reef systems under climate change Abstract Recording

11:20 AM – 11:40 AM

Speaker: Andia Chaves-Fonnegra (Florida Atlantic University)

Thermal anomalies incite competitive interactions in a sponge-dominated reef: 22nd century predictions applying state-transition simulation models Abstract Recording

11:40 AM – 12:00 PM

Speaker: Christopher Spagnolia (Florida Atlantic University)

Plenary Presentations – Session 3

Combining a state-and-transition simulation model with a Bayesian decision network Abstract

1:00 PM – 1:20 PM

Speaker: Anthony Ciocco (U.S. Geological Survey)

Simulating long-term costs and effectiveness of sagebrush conservation strategies for invasive annual grasses Abstract Recording

1:20 PM – 1:40 PM

Speaker: Bryan Tarbox (U.S. Geological Survey)

Using recent advances in state-and-transition simulation modeling to scope post-fire success in restoring Greater Sage-grouse habitat Abstract Recording

1:40 PM – 2:00 PM

Speaker: Elizabeth Orning (U.S. Geological Survey)

Introducing WISDM, the workbench for integrated species distribution modeling Abstract Recording

2:00 PM – 2:20 PM

Speaker: Catherine Jarnevich (U.S. Geological Survey)

Facilitated Discussion

The Future of SyncroSim

2:50 PM – 4:30 PM

Facilitators: Jim Smith (The Nature Conservancy) & Colin Daniel (ApexRMS)